Analyst Explains Rupiah's Drop to Rp16,859.5 per U.S. Dollar Despite March Trade Surplus

April 22, 2025 | 06:48 pm

TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - The rupiah weakened on Tuesday afternoon, April 22, 2025, slipping 25 points to Rp16,859.5 per U.S. dollar. In the previous session, the currency had also declined by 70 points to Rp16,806.5 per U.S. dollar.

"Meanwhile, for tomorrow's trading, the rupiah is predicted to fluctuate but close to weakening in the range of Rp16,840-16,900," said currency analyst Ibrahim Assuaibi in a written statement on Tuesday.

Indonesia recorded a trade surplus of US$4.33 billion in March 2025. However, economists warn that this surplus may gradually narrow throughout the year due to the impact of U.S. tariffs imposed by former President Donald Trump.

Ibrahim noted that Indonesia’s trade outlook remains uncertain, mainly due to the rising risk of weakening export demand and shifting domestic consumption patterns.

"The reason being the escalation of trade wars due to the reciprocal tariff implementation by U.S. President Donald Trump on his trading partners, including Indonesia," said Ibrahim.

Trump’s tariffs could reduce demand from Indonesia’s key trading partners, including China, the United States, and the European Union.

This would likely put pressure on Indonesia’s exports, especially in the manufacturing and natural resources sectors. In addition, global fluctuations in energy and mineral prices may also affect the country’s export value.

The Central Statistics Agency (BPS) reported that March’s surplus of US$4.33 billion was an increase from February’s US$3.12 billion. Cumulatively, the trade balance from January to March 2025 stood at US$10.92 billion. Indonesia has maintained a trade surplus for 59 consecutive months since May 2020.

According to Ibrahim, market sentiment has been hit once again by concerns over U.S. monetary policy, following Trump’s announcement of plans to overhaul the Federal Reserve. White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett stated on Friday that Trump and his team are still weighing whether they can remove Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.

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