TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - The Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) has forecast a strengthening of the Australian monsoon winds for the coming week, from July 18 to 25, 2025.
This forecast marks a change from the previous weeks, during which the Australian monsoon winds were weaker than usual, delaying the start of the dry season across many of Indonesia’s seasonal zones.
“In the upcoming week, the winds are predicted to return to normal and may help expand the areas entering the dry season,” BMKG said in its latest Weekly Weather Outlook, released by the Public Meteorology Directorate on Thursday, July 17.
As of the first third of July, BMKG noted that only about 39 percent of Indonesia’s seasonal zones had entered the dry season. These areas include most parts of Aceh, North Sumatra, West Sumatra, Bengkulu, Riau, Riau Islands, Jambi, South Sumatra, and a small portion of Lampung.
In the southern part of the country, similar conditions are found in parts of Banten, West Java, Central Java, and East Java, along with limited areas in Bali, West Nusa Tenggara (NTB), and East Nusa Tenggara (NTT).
Early signs of the dry season have also been detected in parts of South Kalimantan, South Sulawesi, West Papua, and Papua.
Despite some regions entering the dry season, heavy rainfall has continued in several parts of the country.
BMKG recorded heavy to extreme rainfall between July 15 and 16, particularly in Fakfak, West Papua, which saw 334.4 mm and 206.5 mm of rain in a single day. Similar conditions were observed on July 16 in Gorontalo (95.4 mm), Poso in Central Sulawesi (85.5 mm), and Jakarta (80 mm).
BMKG added that the potential for heavy to extreme rain remains high for the coming week, especially in South Sumatra, western Java, and many central and eastern regions of Indonesia.
This is due to the presence of two tropical cyclone seeds: 90S in the Indian Ocean west of Sumatra and 96W in the Philippine Sea.
As of Thursday evening, BMKG reported that tropical cyclone seed 90S could also generate waves up to 4 meters high in several maritime areas.
These include the waters west of Enggano, west of Lampung, and south of Banten and West Java, as well as the Indian Ocean west of Bengkulu and south of Lampung to Banten and West Java.
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