September 19, 2025 | 04:52 pm
TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - The latest report from the Commercial Spaceflight Federation revealed that China has the potential to surpass the United States and become the leading nation in space exploration in the next five to ten years.
The U.S. space ambition has been hindered by the proposal of the Donald Trump administration, which has slashed nearly half of the budget of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). "The United States is still ahead today in a lot of areas in space. But the Chinese are advancing very quickly and poised to overtake us in the next five to 10 years if we don't do something," said Dave Cavossa, president of the Commercial Spaceflight Federation, quoted from Live Science, Thursday, September 18, 2025.
The research-based warning from the organization that houses private space companies emerged shortly after the U.S. Senate Commerce Committee meeting, which also discussed the likelihood of China overtaking the U.S. in a mission to fly to the moon. "It is highly unlikely the United States will beat China's projected timeline, unless the recent record-breaking cuts to NASA's budget are reversed," said former NASA Administrator Jim Bridenstine during the meeting.
The report titled "Redshift," released on September 16, stated that China's space infrastructure and capabilities have rapidly developed over the past decade. This 112-page document details various Chinese space assets, ranging from the Tiangong space station, satellite megaconstellations to plans for lunar colonization.
"China is not only racing to catch up — it is setting pace, deregulating, and, at times, redefining what leadership looks like on and above Earth," stated the researchers in the report.
The CSF report overall highlights concerns that China could be the first country since 1972 to send humans back to the moon. Although NASA aims to land in 2027, the Artemis mission continues to face delays. Meanwhile, the Chinese government is achieving significant milestones in its plan to land astronauts by 2030.
The Bamboo Curtain country also plans to build a lunar base with an autonomous nuclear reactor by 2035. There are also plans to expand dominance in low Earth orbit through the Tiangong space station, which will be the only giant space station after the retirement of the ISS.
China's satellite megaconstellation, which will compete with Starlink, is also a force to be reckoned with. The world's fourth-largest country is constructing a space telescope similar to the James Webb Space Telescope and increasing the number of rocket launches through its six operational spaceports. "China is currently going through the Apollo era, the ISS, and commercial space at the same time," reads the CSF report.
China's success is fueled by a substantial increase in funding, particularly for government-backed commercial enterprises. Last year, the investment reached US$2.86 billion, a sharp increase from US$164 million in 2016. According to the research, China's rise in space is also due to its disciplined policies.
Jonathan Roll, a space policy analyst at Arizona State University and co-author of the report, admitted to being surprised by the rapid development. "I thought I had a pretty good read on this when I was finishing grad school. [But the fact] that almost everything needed to be updated, or had changed three years later, was pretty scary," he said.
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