December 29, 2025 | 07:27 pm
TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - The Central Administrator of the Indonesian Association of Agricultural Economics, Khudori, considers the government's decision to halt sugar imports in 2026 to be potentially causing price fluctuations. "It's highly risky if there's no import," he said in a written statement on Sunday, December 28, 2025.
Minister of Agriculture and Head of the National Food Agency, Andi Amran Sulaiman, previously stated that Indonesia will not import sugar next year as it aims to produce a surplus of 3 million tons, relying primarily on domestic production from East Java.
According to Khudori, suspending sugar import for consumption in 2026 is risky, especially as the commodity's stock is starting to dwindle during the transition period. Due to limited stock, he is concerned that the government will be unable to intervene and control prices in the event of a spike caused by sellers holding back supplies.
Moreover, Khudori found a significant difference in data on sugar consumption needs between the National Food Agency and the scientific publication in the Sugar Journal issued by the Nusantara Sugar Community (NSC).
Based on the National Food Agency's Food Balance Projection as of December 4, 2025, this year's sugar consumption needs amount to 2,808,980 tons. Meanwhile, the sugar availability this year is 4.246 million tons.
This year's sugar stock consists of the initial stock from 2025, which totaled 1.388 million tons, plus this year's production, which was 2.668 million tons, and imports, which were 190,000 tons. Thus, the sugar stock at the end of the year is about 1.437 million tons after deducting consumption. With a monthly consumption of 234,082 tons, this stock is sufficient for 6.1 months.
Meanwhile, Khudori stated that based on data from the Sugar Journal, the remaining sugar stock this year is only sufficient to meet needs for the next 4.7 months.
Khudori mentioned that based on the January 2025 edition of the Sugar Journal, the national sugar stock this year is 4,294,000 tons. This year's national sugar stock consists of an initial stock of 1,436,000 tons plus production of 2,668,000 tons, and imports of 190,000 tons.
After deducting 3,084,000 tons for consumption, the remaining end-of-year stock is 1,210,000 tons. With an average consumption similar to this year, or 257,000 tons per month, Khudori stated that this stock will only last until the third week of May 2026.
Khudori then explained that large-scale production generally occurs in June. Khudori warns of the potential for price fluctuations in June and July if the government closes the import door next year. "Because sugar produced in June 2026 needs time to enter the market," he said.
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