BMKG Issues Extreme Rainfall Warning for Jakarta, Java, and Other Regions Next Week

November 2, 2025 | 02:54 pm

Flooding inundates the main Semarang-Surabaya pantura (north coast) route on Jalan Kaligawe Raya, Semarang, Central Java, on October 29, 2025. According to preliminary data from the Semarang City Disaster Management Agency (BPBD), 39,405 people from 29,772 households in 18 districts were affected by the floods. Weather anomaly with high levels of rainfall since October 21, 2025, triggered the flooding. Antara/Aprillio Akbar

TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - The Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) has issued an early warning regarding the potential for heavy to very heavy rainfall across Indonesia for the upcoming week (November 1–7, 2025).

Several key regions have been placed on alert status for extreme weather, including Banten, Jakarta, West Java, Central Java, DI Yogyakarta, and Papua. Meanwhile, the potential for moderate to heavy rain is forecast for almost all other Indonesian regions, prompting an alert status for Aceh, southern Sumatra, Bangka Belitung, Bengkulu, Lampung, Java, Bali, Nusa Tenggara, Kalimantan, Sulawesi, Maluku, and Papua.

"The potential for rain in those areas could jump to very heavy, or even extreme," stated BMKG Head Dwikorita Karnawati during an online briefing on Saturday afternoon, November 1, 2025.

Dwikorita underscored the importance of these alerts by recalling the severe flood disaster in Bali last September. She noted that during the transition from the dry to the rainy season, rainfall there reached 385 mm in a single day, more than double the threshold for extreme intensity.

"Now we are entering the peak of the rainy season, and the potential for extreme rain will naturally increase," she warned.

The agency explained that the anticipated increase in convective cloud growth next week is influenced by several meteorological factors.

The first is the activity of the Madden-Julian Oscillation atmospheric wave in phases 5–6, which precipitates the development of convective clouds in the central and eastern regions of Indonesia.

Subsequently, the equatorial Rossby wave contributes, triggering convective cloud growth in southern Sumatra, western Java, North Maluku, North Sulawesi, and southern Papua. Meanwhile, the equatorial Kelvin wave induces similar development in northern Sumatra and the central and northern parts of Kalimantan.

Beyond those large-scale phenomena, local factors continue to contribute to increased convective rainfall in Aceh, North Sumatra, West Sumatra, Java, Bali, and several other areas.

Weather Mitigation Efforts

As part of efforts to mitigate potential disaster impacts from the increased rainfall, BMKG is actively conducting Weather Modification Operations (WMO). These operations began on October 25 in Central Java and on October 23 in West Java, and are projected to continue until November 3.

"Weather Modification Operations are designed to reduce and redistribute rainfall in the target areas," Dwikorita explained. "Rain clouds that form or cluster are dispersed so that the resulting rainfall is not excessively heavy."

BMKG's Director of Weather Modification Operations, Budi Harsoyo, provided specific regional forecasts, revealing predictions of heavy rain in West Java until November 7 and in Central Java until November 4.

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