BMKG: Only 30% of Indonesian Seasonal Zones Enter Dry Season by June

TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - The Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) noted that by the end of June, only 30 percent of the seasonal zones in Indonesia had entered the dry season, which is only half of the weather agency's forecast. 

In a statement quoted from the Weekly Weather Outlook for July 4-10, 2025, BMKG mentioned that this condition is caused by higher levels of rainfall in a 10-day period. "This anomaly has been observed since early May 2025 and continues to this day," wrote BMKG.

It was explained that by the end of June 2025, above-normal rainfall occurred in about 53 percent of Indonesia's regions. The main areas recorded were Java, Bali, West Nusa Tenggara, East Nusa Tenggara, parts of Kalimantan, parts of Sulawesi, Maluku, and Papua.

BMKG pointed out the weakness of the Australian Monsoon, which caused the atmosphere in most southern parts of Indonesia to remain humid. The monsoon wind is relatively dry and is usually an indication of the dry season in Indonesia.

Intra-seasonal atmospheric activities, such as the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Equatorial Waves, also contributed to the formation of intensive rain clouds in Indonesian regions. Spatially, the MJO disturbance remains detected in the eastern regions of Indonesia, namely in South Sulawesi, Maluku, and Papua.

Meanwhile, equatorial waves such as Rossby, Kelvin, and Low-Frequency waves also strengthened the convection process, especially in the eastern part of Sumatra, North Kalimantan, Lesser Sunda Islands, and some areas in southern Java. "The high air humidity and warm sea surface temperatures further support the formation of rain clouds in various regions."

Weather Forecast for the Next Week

According to BMKG's forecast, Indonesian regions, especially the southern and eastern parts, will continue seeing significant cloud growth over the next week. One of the contributing factors is the indicated continued weakness of the Australian Monsoon. Additionally, other tropical atmospheric wave activities still dominate.

BMKG said the Equatorial Rossby Wave is active in the southwest Indian Ocean off Banten, while the Kelvin Wave is expected to trigger cloud growth in the Lampung region, Sunda Strait, Banten, Java Sea, southern coast of Kalimantan, and the northern coast of Java.

Additionally, persistent low-frequency waves are also observed over numerous regions, including Java, South Kalimantan, Bali, Nusa Tenggara, Sulawesi, Maluku, to Papua and the Arafura Sea. "Supporting increased convection and cloud growth," said BMKG.

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