BMKG Predicts Heavy Rain in West Java This Week

TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - The Indonesian Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) predicts that atmospheric dynamics will continue to support increased water vapor supply and convective cloud growth in parts of West Java this week, February 23–March 1, 2026. Sea surface temperatures are relatively warm in Indonesian waters, while low-frequency and equatorial Rossby waves are active.

Furthermore, according to Mirnawati Zulaikha, a weather forecaster at the BMKG West Java Climatology Station, there is the potential for wind bends and convergence to form around West Java, with atmospheric lability ranging from light to strong.

"All these factors support an increased potential for convective cloud formation on a local scale in West Java," Mirnawati said in a written statement on Monday, February 23, 2026.

Based on forecasts of atmospheric dynamics at global, regional, and local scales, as well as probabilistic or deterministic weather model outputs and analysis of observational data, the potential for moderate to very heavy rain, accompanied by lightning and strong winds, is local and of short duration in West Java.

On Monday, moderate to very heavy rain accompanied by lightning and strong winds is potential in Bekasi, Bogor Regency, Depok City, Karawang, Purwakarta, Subang, Cianjur, Sukabumi, Bandung Regency, West Bandung, Sumedang, Cirebon, Indramayu, Majalengka, Kuningan, Garut, Tasikmalaya, Ciamis, Banjar City, and Pangandaran.

On Tuesday, similar conditions are likely to occur in Bogor Regency, Depok City, Karawang, Purwakarta, Subang, Cianjur, Sukabumi, Sumedang, Cirebon, Indramayu, Majalengka, Kuningan, Garut, Tasikmalaya, Ciamis, Banjar, and Pangandaran.

On Thursday, similar conditions are likely to occur in Bogor, Purwakarta, Subang, Cianjur, Sukabumi, Bandung, West Bandung, Sumedang, Cirebon, Indramayu, Majalengka, Kuningan, Garut, Tasikmalaya, Ciamis, Banjar City, and Pangandaran.

Moderate to very heavy rain is likely to occur on Friday in Sumedang, Cirebon, Indramayu, Majalengka, Kuningan, and Garut. Meanwhile, on Saturday, similar conditions are likely to occur in Cianjur, Sumedang, Cirebon, Indramayu, Majalengka, Kuningan, Tasikmalaya, and Ciamis. On Sunday, similar conditions are likely to occur in Bogor, Purwakarta, Subang, Cianjur, Sukabumi, Sumedang, Cirebon, Kuningan, Garut, Tasikmalaya, and Ciamis.

Meanwhile, the BMKG weather forecast for the final decade of February 21-28, 2026, indicates that West Java has the potential for moderate rainfall in the majority, or 87 percent, of the area. Meanwhile, 10 percent of the area will experience heavy rainfall, and 3 percent will experience low rainfall.

The BMKG predicts that areas with infrequent rainfall with an intensity of 0-50 millimeters per decade include parts of northern Karawang, Subang, and Indramayu. On the other hand, areas with high rainfall of between 150 and 300 millimeters per decade will experience a small portion of Sukabumi near the border with Banten, followed by Majalengka and some surrounding areas, such as Sumedang, Ciamis, Kuningan, Cirebon, and Indramayu.

Besides these areas, according to the Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG), all areas in West Java will experience moderate rainfall of 50 to 150 millimeters per decade. The BMKG predicts this will continue through March. "Medium rainfall is predicted to dominate West Java," said Rakhmat Prasetia, Head of the West Java BMKG Climatology Station, in a written statement on February 21, 2026.

According to him, in March 2026, 63.7 percent of West Java is predicted to experience moderate rainfall, while 35.3 percent will receive high to very high rainfall, and only 1 percent will experience low rainfall.

Read: Heavy Rainfall Across Indonesia: Jakarta's Weather Forecast Today

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