January 7, 2026 | 08:13 pm
TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - US attacks on Venezuela currently pose limited impacts on Indonesia's financial market and commodities sector, said Deni Friawan, a senior researcher for the Department of Economy at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
Nevertheless, Deni suggests that a bigger geopolitical risk that transforms the global energy and economic order could emerge if the conflict escalates. The main risk lies in the possibility of more energy-producing countries being involved.
"The problem lies in whether the transition (of Venezuela's government) will be smooth. The concern is whether Venezuela, for example, is controlled by Trump, and Iran is currently in turmoil as well. If these conflicts erupt and disrupt the global oil prices, that would be concerning. But so far, it's still limited," said Deni in Jakarta on Wednesday, January 7, 2026, as quoted from Antara.
Deni also believed that the US-Venezuela conflict is inseparable from the strategic rivalry with China. Venezuela is known to have deep oil and gold reserves, which have long been a critical energy source for Beijing.
"So, the US is trying to control the oil to cut the supply to China. It's about balancing China," remarked Deni.
The CSIS researcher also pointed out the US interest in maintaining the US dollar's dominance through the petrodollar mechanism. China's efforts, along with those of Russia and several other countries, to expand oil transactions using non-dollar currencies are considered a threat to the dollar's position as the world's main currency.
"To avoid that, the US is seizing Venezuela to uphold the dollar as the main currency and to secure the oil," added Deni.
What Does the Situation Mean for Indonesia?
There are two perspectives on how the conflict could impact Indonesia. First, a disrupted Chinese oil supply would indirectly affect Indonesia due to its strong economic dependence on China.
On the other hand, the situation could present an opportunity for Indonesia. If the supply to China drops, Beijing will seek alternative sources, and Indonesia could then see abundant demand for commodity exports.
Meanwhile, an oil price hike may disadvantage Indonesia as a net importer, but still Indonesia could leverage other commodities such as coal and palm oil.
Therefore, in dealing with global uncertainties, Deni emphasizes the importance of diversification strategies, both in export markets and energy sources.
Diversification in export markets is necessary to prevent Indonesia from being too vulnerable to economic slowdowns in China or the US alone.
The situation in Venezuela remains uncertain after President Nicolas Maduro was captured by the US military and taken to New York to face narco-terrorism charges.
Meanwhile, the local Supreme Court has sworn in Vice President Delcy Rodriguez as the interim leader. The US has expressed its intention to oversee the process of transition of power and take over the country's oil reserves for energy security purposes.
Indonesia's Finance Ministry Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa, previously believed that the US attack on Venezuela would only present a limited impact on Indonesia. According to him, Venezuela has not been very active in the world oil market for a long time due to its limited production capacity.
But still, he said Indonesia must maintain its strength in the wake of turbulent global dynamics.
Read: Trump Claims 50 Million Barrels of Venezuelan Oil Will Go to US
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