TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - Fifty-six percent of the West Java region is observed to have experienced days without rain, also known as drought with a moderate category (between 1-20 days) during the first third of July 2026. The longest drought in West Java during the period of July 1-10 occurred in Losari area, Cirebon Regency, where there has been no rain for 48 consecutive days.
Based on the monitoring results of the BMKG Climatology Station in West Java, 12 percent of the areas are experiencing a very long drought, between 31-60 days. The distribution, in addition to Losari, includes the western part of Bekasi, central Karawang, northern Purwakarta, several locations in Subang, Indramayu, Majalengka, Sumedang, Garut, Bandung Regency, Cianjur, and Sukabumi.
Meanwhile, 18 percent of the areas in West Java are experiencing a long drought between 21-30 days. These include areas in the border of Bekasi and the northern part of Karawang, northeast Subang, northern Purwakarta, southern Cianjur and Bandung Regency, southern Majalengka, and Kuningan.
Based on the latest global climate analysis, the El Nino phenomenon indicates the potential for a reduction in rainfall in several regions of Indonesia, including West Java. However, the weather forecaster of the BMKG Climatology Station in West Java, Diana Hertanti, revealed that in the upcoming week there are several atmospheric dynamics forecasted to still support the supply of water vapor and the growth of convective clouds locally in some areas of West Java.
Several factors include the Equatorial Rossby atmospheric waves that are predicted to be active in the middle of the week. Sea surface temperatures also remain relatively warm in some Indonesian waters. As for atmospheric instability, it varies from light to strong categories.
"Generally, rainfall in West Java tends to decrease, but the potential for light to moderate intensity rain can still occur locally, especially in the afternoon to evening in some areas," she said in a written statement on Sunday, July 12, 2026.
In the second third of July, BMKG predicts that all areas of West Java will experience low rainfall with an intensity range of 0-50 millimeters. The majority will be between 10-20 millimeters, while areas ranging from 20-50 millimeters, such as some in Bogor, Cianjur, and the southern part of Purwakarta.
Read: El Nino Intensifies as Drier Conditions Spread Across Indonesia
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