January 14, 2026 | 10:50 pm
TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - Researcher from the Center for Climate and Atmospheric Research of the National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN), Erma Yulihastin, stated that the widespread heavy rain in southern Indonesia is triggered by preconditions for vortex storm formation. These storms have been detected developing into tropical cyclones in southern West Nusa Tenggara (NTB). This condition has impacted regions from Lampung to East Nusa Tenggara (NTT).
The same weather disturbance has also caused extreme rain in Jakarta and its surrounding areas. On January 12, North Jakarta experienced 200-250 millimeters of rainfall, which led to flooding in several areas.
"The widespread stratiform rain system that is expected to occur in the Greater Jakarta area is predicted to last for the next 2-3 days," Erma said in a statement received by Tempo on January 14, 2026.
The climatology professor stated that widespread heavy rain has become the main characteristic of extreme weather in recent times. Extensive stratocumulus clouds over the Java Sea and the southern waters of Java produce the rain.
"Furthermore, the widespread rain also experiences propagation or spreading impacts from the growth and movement of tropical cyclones," she added.
Erma added that the movement of rain generally occurs from west to east. This phenomenon is sometimes accompanied by the formation of other extreme weather systems, such as squall lines and mesoscale convective systems, which can increase rainfall intensity.
Previously, the Head of Public Meteorology at Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysical Agency (BMKG), Andri Ramdhani, explained that the recent extreme weather conditions were triggered by a combination of regional-scale atmospheric dynamics that strengthen each other. One of them is the strengthening of the Asian Monsoon, accompanied by an increase in wind speed from the South China Sea moving southward through the Karimata Strait to Java Island.
The increase in wind speed or cold surge forms and strengthens a convergence area that plays a crucial role in initiating the intensive growth of rain clouds. "Especially along Java, Bali, to Nusa Tenggara," Andri said.
Andri also mentioned the presence of a low-pressure area in the southern Indian Ocean near NTB, which also affects the circulation pattern of regional winds. This system causes the airflow in the southern part of Indonesia to become more dominant towards the east, thereby strengthening convergence and slowing down the air mass in the southern region of Indonesia.
Read: BMKG Warns of Continued Rainfall in Greater Jakarta Area
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