How U.S. Strikes Threaten Venezuela's Oil-Forward Economy

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January 4, 2026 | 05:58 pm

Illustration of an oil refinery. REUTERS/Shannon Stapleton

TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - U.S. attacks in Venezuela will certainly affect the country's economy, said Syafruddin Karimi, an economist from Andalas University. Washington's aggression is expected to reduce Venezuela's oil export capacity, which subsequently cut its earnings.

"The attack doesn't have to destroy refineries to cripple a country's ability to make earnings; disruptions in logistics and shipping are enough to lower effective export capacity," said Syafruddin in a press release on Sunday, January 4, 2026.

The United States attacked Venezuela on Saturday, January 3, 2026. Following the attack, the U.S. arrested Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro on narco-terrorism charges.

U.S. President Donald Trump then stated that America would "run" Venezuela temporarily.

Trump also stated that the U.S. would manage Venezuela's oil reserves. "We’re going to have our very large United States oil companies – the biggest anywhere in the world – go in, spend billions of dollars, fix the badly broken infrastructure and start making money for the country," he said in a press conference on Saturday, cited from the Financial Times and The Guardian.

Venezuela's state-run oil production and refining, Petróleos de Venezuela, S.A. (PDVSA), did not suffer major damage from the U.S. attack. However, tanker blockades and cargo seizures in December have reduced Venezuela's oil exports to about half of the 950,000 barrels per day in November. Shipping companies are avoiding Venezuelan waters, oil supplies are piling up, and port activities are declining.

Syafruddin argued that the international community must respond firmly and promptly, citing the need for the Global South to strengthen diplomatic solidarity to avoid this precedent from spreading to other regions.

"For Indonesia, the strategic message is clear: strengthen energy and food security, diversify sources of export earnings, and build the credibility of economic institutions so that external pressures do not easily translate geopolitical shocks into domestic crises," he added.

Read: UN Security Council to Hold Emergency Meeting on US Attack on Venezuela

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