January 16, 2026 | 01:56 pm
TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - Indonesia’s Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources has set the average Indonesian Crude Price at US$61.10 per barrel for December 2025, down US$1.73 from US$62.83 per barrel in November, reflecting mounting concerns over a potential global oil supply glut.
The December ICP price was formalized through ministerial decree on crude oil pricing, signed on January 9, 2026.
According to Laode Sulaiman, Director General of Oil and Gas at the Energy Ministry, the decline was largely driven by fears of an oversupplied global oil market, fueled by rising production in the United States, increased output from OPEC+ countries, and projections from the International Energy Agency (IEA).
“The drop in December’s ICP is influenced by the increase in global oil supply,” Laode said in a written statement on Friday, January 16. He cited the IEA’s estimate that global oil supply could exceed demand by 3.7 to 4 million barrels per day in 2026.
Geopolitical developments have also contributed to market sentiment, particularly expectations of a possible easing of the Russia–Ukraine conflict.
Laode noted reports suggesting that Ukraine may reconsider its bid to join NATO, which could reduce geopolitical risk premiums in oil markets.
On the supply side, Russia has projected its crude oil production to rise to 10.36 million barrels per day in 2025, with a further increase to 10.54 million barrels per day in 2026.
In addition, OPEC+ oil production in November 2025 rose on a month-on-month basis compared to November 2024, reaching 43.065 million barrels per day, according to ministry data.
Laode also pointed to revisions in global supply and demand outlooks. OPEC raised its forecast for non-OPEC+ oil supply growth in 2025 to 0.95 million barrels per day, up 40,000 barrels per day from the previous projection.
Meanwhile, S&P Global cut its estimate for global oil demand growth in 2025 by 16,000 barrels per day to 730,000 barrels per day.
In the Asia-Pacific region, weaker oil prices were also influenced by slowing demand in China. China’s crude oil throughput fell 0.9 percent month-on-month in November 2025 to 14.86 million barrels per day, the lowest level in the past six months, Laode said.
Data from the ministry show that average prices of major global crude benchmarks declined in December 2025 compared to November, as follows:
Dated Brent fell US$0.95 to US$62.70 per barrel
WTI (NYMEX) fell US$1.61 to US$57.87 per barrel
Brent (ICE) fell US$2.02 to US$61.64 per barrel
OPEC Basket fell US$2.61 to US$61.85 per barrel
Indonesia’s ICP fell US$1.73 to US$61.10 per barrel
Read: Rupiah Gains Slightly, but Investors Stay Wary of Market Volatility
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