Geopolitical Tensions and Trade Wars Drive Gold Prices Higher, Analyst Says

TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - World gold prices continue to spike significantly after the U.S. President Donald Trump imposed import tariff policies on Wednesday, April 2, 2025. Currency observer Ibrahim Assuaibi mentioned that the 32 percent import duty imposed on all countries, including Indonesia, has pushed gold prices up and briefly touched the level of US$ 3,180 per troy ounce in Wednesday morning trading.

"This means that there is a high possibility that the world gold prices will reach 3,200 next week," said Ibrahim in his statement on Thursday, April 3, 2025.

In addition to Trump's import tariff policy, the rise in global geopolitical tensions has also affected the surge in gold prices. Ibrahim highlighted several key factors that have caused gold prices to soar:

1. Existence of Conflict Threats in the Middle East

The United States issued an ultimatum to Iran regarding cooperation on the nuclear issue. If Iran refuses to cooperate, Ibrahim predicts that a military attack on the country will be carried out by the U.S. This conflict threat has prompted investors to seek safe assets such as gold.

2. Potential New War in Europe

Although Russia and Ukraine have reached a peace agreement, Ibrahim revealed indications that two European countries are preparing to send weapons and troops to support Ukraine. If this happens, a new war could break out in Europe, thus increasing demand for gold as a hedge.

3. Impact of Trade Wars on the Rupiah

The U.S. import tariff policy also affects the depreciation of the rupiah exchange rate. Ibrahim estimates that this week the rupiah will open at Rp16,900, with the possibility of breaking through Rp17,000.

With the increasingly turbulent global conditions, gold is increasingly seen as a hedge. "The impact of this trade war is quite extraordinary," said Ibrahim.

In the future, gold prices have the potential to continue rising in line with the increasing economic and geopolitical uncertainties. "If the escalation of conflicts continues and trade wars expand further, gold may set a new record above the 3,200 level shortly," he said.

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