TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - Heavy rain and thunderstorms remain likely in the coming days, even as El Nino forms in the Pacific Ocean and the Australian monsoon is growing in influence.
The El Nino phenomenon has led to reduced rainfall in parts of Indonesia, while the Australian Monsoon is bringing dry air masses from the continent towards Indonesia.
According to the Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG), the potential for heavy to very heavy rain exists in the northern part of Sumatra, West Kalimantan, Central Sulawesi, West Sulawesi, and South Sulawesi from June 9-11, 2026.
The same potential for rain exists in Central Sulawesi from June 12-15, 2026, along with South Sulawesi, Central Papua, and the Papua Highlands.
BMKG's analysis of the dry season trend shows that 28.6 percent of the seasonal zone in Indonesia has entered the dry season, particularly in the southern part of Indonesia.
In the same region, there have been reports of increasingly longer Days Without Rain (DWR), ranging from 21-30 days, indicating a consistent development of dry conditions, as stated by BMKG on June 8, 2026.
Over the next week, the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) activity is also expected to be in phases 8 to 1 (Western Hemisphere-Africa), thus having less impact on the Indonesian region. Convective MJO signals are still likely to persist in parts of Papua, especially in the southern to central regions.
Read: Drought and Floods: How El Nino Fuels Global Weather Extremes
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