TEMPO.CO, Jakarta – Indonesia is expected to see generally lower rainfall over the coming week as dry conditions intensify across much of the archipelago, driven by a strengthening El Nino in the Pacific Ocean, according to the Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG).
In its Indonesian Rainfall Potential Outlook for July 7–13, 2026, released on Monday, July 6, BMKG said the latest Niño 3.4 index has strengthened to +1.24, placing the climate phenomenon in the moderate El Niño category.
Dry Conditions Expand Across Indonesia
BMKG estimates that around 72.19 percent of Indonesia is currently experiencing low rainfall.
"Dry conditions are becoming more dominant, particularly across most parts of southern Sumatra, Java, Bali, Nusa Tenggara, Kalimantan, Sulawesi, Maluku, and Papua," the agency said.
The agency noted that the Niño 3.4 index at +1.24, along with the Southern Indian Ocean Oscillation (SIOD) index at -23.3, is contributing to reduced rainfall potential across most regions of the country.
Reflecting these conditions, about 48.9 percent of Indonesia's territory—equivalent to 342 Climatic Zones—has officially entered the dry season.
BMKG's latest monitoring also found that 329 observation points, or around seven percent of all monitoring stations, are experiencing Very Long Dry Days (VLD), with no significant rainfall recorded for 31 to 60 consecutive days.
Meanwhile, maximum air temperatures recorded between July 1 and July 5, 2026, exceeded 35 degrees Celsius in several provinces, including North Sumatra, Lampung, West Kalimantan, East Kalimantan, Central Java, Banten, and Central Sulawesi.
Researchers Warn El Niño Could Strengthen Further
The latest BMKG assessment is consistent with observations by Erma Yulihastin, a researcher at the National Research and Innovation Agency's (BRIN) Climate and Atmospheric Center.
In a social media post published on Tuesday, July 7, Erma said the Pacific Ocean has continued to warm since April.
"Since April, the Pacific Ocean has been warming and strengthened to 1.25 degrees Celsius as of July 5, 2026," she wrote.
For comparison, sea surface temperature anomalies stood at 1.1 degrees Celsius on June 21.
"As predicted, El Niño has shifted from a weak phase to a moderate phase," Erma said, adding that many global climate models project this year's El Niño could continue intensifying into a super El Niño, with sea surface temperature anomalies potentially reaching +2.0 degrees Celsius.
Erma, a professor specializing in climate science and extreme weather, also said the 2026 El Niño exhibits a pattern of subsurface heat propagation similar to the 1997 event and a spatial structure resembling the 2015 El Niño.
In her latest update, she said cooling has begun to develop beneath the western Pacific near Papua, a sign that El Niño's influence is spreading further across Indonesia.
"On the western side (near Papua), the lower ocean layers are beginning to cool. This indicates that El Niño's impact is becoming increasingly widespread across Indonesia," Erma said.
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