TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - Professor of Middle East Geopolitics at Gadjah Mada University, Siti Muti'ah Setyawati, believes that Indonesia will find it difficult to play a role as a mediator in the recent conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran.
According to her, one of the main requirements for a mediator is neutrality and acceptance by all conflicting parties.
"If Indonesia were to mediate, the condition is to be neutral and accepted by both sides. I think Iran is unlikely to accept Indonesia," she said.
This is in response to President Prabowo Subianto's desire to mediate the current Middle East conflict.
Previously, Indonesian Foreign Minister Sugiono said that he had coordinated with the U.S. and Iran regarding Indonesia's offer to mediate the conflict escalation.
"I have communicated with both parties, the U.S. and Iran," Sugiono said at the Presidential Palace Complex in Jakarta on Tuesday night, March 3, 2026.
However, according to Sugiono, the conflicting parties have not made a decision. The U.S. and Iran are still monitoring the future developments. "We will see how it goes, because they say they will assess the situation in the coming days and weeks," he said.
Migrant Workers and Oil
Muti'ah added that the conflict in the Middle East also has the potential to impact Indonesia, especially regarding migrant workers.
She stated that millions of Indonesian workers are in the Middle East, including around three million in the Gulf countries. If the conflict escalates and economic activities are disrupted, their jobs could be at risk, leading to a potential reduction in remittances to Indonesia.
Muti'ah also highlighted the government's plan to import oil from the U.S. She said the policy needs further study because the type of oil from the U.S. may not meet Indonesia's needs, even if the distance is not an issue.
"From the Middle East, we already know the quality and the distance is also closer. If it's from the U.S., apart from being far, we need to research first whether the type of oil suits our needs," she said.
Economic Impact
Meanwhile, Yudistira Hendra Permana, a lecturer at the Vocational School of Gadjah Mada University, believes that the conflict between Iran, Israel, and the U.S. could have an economic impact on Indonesia.
One of the most apparent risks is the inflation caused by a surge in the world oil prices.
He explained that world oil prices have increased significantly over the past week. Referring to the prices of West Texas Intermediate and Brent crude oil, values have approached or even exceeded US$80 per barrel, up from US$65-$66 the previous week.
The rise in prices disrupted the oil supply, triggered by the escalation of geopolitical conflict in the Middle East.
Yudistira stated that Indonesia has been a net oil importer since 2003, so its dependency on fuel imports remains considerable. The increase in oil prices will raise production costs and potentially trigger inflation.
"Fossil energy remains a crucial factor for production in Indonesia. The increase in oil prices will raise production costs and potentially trigger inflation," he said.
In addition to inflation, geopolitical turmoil can also affect the stability of the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate. In such a situation, Bank Indonesia's role is considered crucial in maintaining the stability of the national currency.
Yudistira believes that the conflict between Iran, Israel, and the U.S. is a global geopolitical issue beyond Indonesia's control.
Therefore, he thinks Indonesia needs to promote long-term energy self-reliance to reduce vulnerability to global turmoil. The risk of economic pressure this year is potentially greater compared to previous years.
Ervana Trikarinaputri also contributed to this article
Read: Jusuf Kalla Suggests Prabowo to Lobby Trump Over Iran Conflict
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