TEMPO.CO, Jakarta – Indonesia’s benchmark Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) fell on Thursday as investors reacted to the latest MSCI review of Indonesian stocks and assessed domestic and global economic developments.
The JCI opened higher before falling 33.46 points, or 0.52 percent, to 6,340.39 as of 9:15 a.m. Jakarta time. The LQ45 index, which tracks 45 of the most liquid blue-chip stocks on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX), declined 4 points, or 0.63 percent, to 629.84.
“While the JCI can hold above 6,308-6,269, the opportunity for a breakout above 6,377 remains open, with an upside target of 6,462 to 6,550. The next major resistance is around 6,635-6,723,” Kiwoom Sekuritas Indonesia Head of Research Liza Camelia Suryanata said in a research note on Thursday.
“Conversely, if it again fails to break above 6,377 and falls below 6,308, the JCI could test 6,269 and then 6,247 as key support areas,” she said.
MSCI Review
In its August 2026 index review, MSCI made changes to the composition of Indonesian stocks. Two stocks were removed from the MSCI Global Standard Indexes, with one of them being downgraded to the MSCI Global Small Cap Index.
Another Indonesian stock was moved to the MSCI Global Small Cap Index, while MSCI removed nine Indonesian stocks from the index.
As a result, nine Indonesian stocks remain in the MSCI Global Standard Index, while about 33 Indonesian stocks remain in the MSCI Global Small Cap Indexes.
However, MSCI made no changes to the list of emerging-market countries in the MSCI Frontier Emerging Markets Index following its 2026 Annual Country Review.
“The review shows no changes to the list of emerging-market countries currently included in the index, so there is no change to the country composition resulting from the annual review,” Liza said.
Indonesia's Debt and Global Inflation
Indonesia’s government debt reached Rp10,293.69 trillion as of June 2026, equivalent to 41.26 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). The figure has risen by Rp1,819.79 trillion, or 21.5 percent, since September 2024.
Government debt has increased 67.5 percent since 2020, outpacing nominal GDP growth of 64.9 percent. Meanwhile, the ratio of interest payments to government revenue rose to 19 percent from 14.6 percent in 2022.
“Although it remains below the 60 percent of GDP threshold, this trend needs to be monitored to maintain fiscal sustainability,” Liza said.
Overseas, market sentiment was broadly positive after US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for July 2026 came in line with expectations. Headline CPI rose 0.1 percent month on month and slowed to 3.4 percent year on year, while core CPI increased 0.2 percent month on month and eased to 2.5 percent year on year.
The data reduced pressure on the US Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. The probability of the Fed holding rates at its September meeting rose to 62 percent from 54 percent previously.
“However, the market remains alert to the potential for inflation to rise in August due to a surge in oil prices,” Liza said.
Investors are now awaiting US Producer Price Index (PPI) and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data, which are closely watched by the Fed in determining the direction of monetary policy.
Geopolitical tensions also remained a concern after the United States and Iran renewed their dispute over control of the Strait of Hormuz.
US President Donald Trump said the United States had full control of the strategic waterway, while Iran said it would not reopen the Strait of Hormuz until Washington ended hostilities and met several demands.
“Attacks on commercial vessels in the Bab el-Mandeb area have also raised concerns about disruptions to energy supply chains,” Liza said.
Global Markets
European stocks broadly declined on Wednesday, August 12, with the Euro Stoxx 50 falling 0.16 percent, the UK's FTSE 100 down 0.10 percent, Germany's DAX down 0.20 percent and France's CAC 40 declining 0.50 percent.
Wall Street ended mixed on Wednesday. The S&P 500 rose 0.30 percent to 7,749.19, the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.50 percent to 26,588.49, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.30 percent to 53,770.16.
Asian markets were mixed in early trading Thursday. Japan's Nikkei rose 1.62 percent to 68,614.00, Shanghai's Composite Index gained 0.45 percent to 3,964.4, and South Korea's Kospi jumped 4.08 percent to 6,847.41. Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 0.27 percent to 25,370.81, while Singapore's Straits Times Index declined 0.55 percent to 5,689.26.
