The Fracturing Between Prabowo and Jokowi

Prabowo and Jokowi drift apart. Under such circumstances, the emergence of alternative leaders is unlikely.

THE recent deterioration of President Prabowo Subianto and former President Joko Widodo’s relationship is a testament to the classic adage that nothing lasts forever in politics. Conflicting interests in the run-up to the 2029 General Election have spelled the end of a relationship that had been seven years in the making.

After Prabowo was elected president in 2024, he frequently met privately with Jokowi. On several occasions, the General Chair of the Grand Indonesia Movement (Gerindra) Party once shouted, “Long Live Jokowi,” as an expression of gratitude for Jokowi’s service in helping him secure the nation’s eighth presidency.

Prabowo is indeed indebted to that former Mayor of Solo. His convincing victory in the last presidential election was invariably linked to Jokowi’s efforts. From the Constitutional Court’s controversial ruling confirming Gibran Rakabuming Raka as Prabowo’s running mate, to the disbursement of at least Rp500 trillion in social assistance throughout 2024, and the mobilization of civil servants and police officers in the campaign.

However, the two began to grow apart at the end of last year. Prabowo reportedly ignored Jokowi’s repeated requests to meet. In early June 2026, Jokowi was not invited to attend the official commemoration of Pancasila Day.

In the same vein, Prabowo’s relationship with Gibran Rakabuming Raka, Jokowi’s son that became the sitting vice president, is also strained. Gibran has had virtually no role in government. An example being during the deliberations of the One Data Bill, more popularly known as the Statistics Bill. The initial draft stated that the Statistics Indonesia (BPS) would report to the vice president. However, during the deliberations, the line of responsibility shifted: the BPS would report to the president, not the vice president.

Looking back, Prabowo’s separation from Jokowi began when the President removed a group of business elites who had been close to power during the Jokowi era and the previous president’s era. Jokowi tended to be pragmatic in dealing with businesspeople. He supported any group as long as it was profitable—no matter if it conflicted with principles of equality, human rights, or ecological sustainability.

Prabowo did not embrace businesspeople—especially established conglomerates—due to the assumption they had already enjoyed substantial profits. Instead, he gave privileges to new, generally native, entrepreneurs, while positioning the state as a central actor, if not the sole actor, in economic affairs.

The friction between these two figures was also evident when Prabowo planned to run for a second term in 2029 without Gibran. He reasoned that he did not want to be dragged into the negative image that had long been associated with Jokowi. Meanwhile, Gibran has spent the past several months making frequent visits to different regions. These activities had been well-planned and systematic. He visited Jokowi’s bases of voter support from the 2014 and 2019 elections.

The news of Prabowo’s split with Jokowi can be read as a hope for a real contest in the 2029 general election. Their alliance in the 2024 election resulted in a legally weak government—due to the forced appointment of Gibran as a vice-presidential candidate.

Prabowo addressed this weakness by incorporating as many parties and interest groups as possible into the cabinet to secure his political position. As a result, the Prabowo-Gibran government became bloated, ineffective, and merely a means of distributing the spoils. Democracy died because there is no political opposition, and the government ran without corrective action.

Hope for the emergence of an alternative candidates has come from the Constitutional Court’s abolition of a presidential vote threshold for presidential and vice-presidential nominations. However, caution must be exercised. The Constitutional Court’s ruling is now threatened by the revision of the General Election Law currently being debated by politicians in the legislature.

There is pessimism about political parties as candidate breeding grounds—it is an institution that to date has neglected to prepare qualified candidates and been weak in strengthening their ideological foundation.

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