TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - Indonesia's Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) predicts that in most areas of West Java, Indonesia, including the second ten days of November 17 to 23, 2025, there will be moderate to very heavy rain accompanied by lightning and strong winds.
A weather forecaster at the BMKG West Java Climatology Station, Perdana Reynaldy Augus Usior, said that the sea surface temperature around the southern waters of Java is relatively warm, providing a sufficient supply of water vapor potential for the growth of convective clouds and rain in parts of West Java.
In addition, the Dipole Mode Index (DMI) with a value of -1.57 generally increases convection activity in the western part of Indonesia. The Low Frequency and Kelvin atmospheric waves are expected to remain active across West Java, and there is cyclonic circulation in the southern Indian Ocean off the coast of West Nusa Tenggara, triggering the formation of wind convergences in the West Java region.
On the other hand, the atmospheric instability conditions in the category of mild to strong instability also indicate the possibility of the growth of convective clouds on a local scale. "Therefore, the potential for rain with varying intensity can still occur, especially during the day and night," Perdana said in a written statement on Sunday, November 16, 2025.
During the five days from Monday to Friday, November 17 to 21, 2025, moderate to very heavy rain accompanied by lightning and strong winds on a local scale and of short duration is expected to potentially occur in almost all of West Java. Meanwhile, on November 22, the BMKG predicts that these conditions will only occur in Purwakarta and Subang. As for November 23, these conditions will occur in Bekasi Regency, Bogor Regency, Karawang, Subang, Cianjur, Sukabumi Regency, West Bandung Regency, Sumedang, Indramayu, Majalengka, Kuningan, and Garut.
The BMKG urges the public and related agencies to be vigilant regarding the potential for hydrometeorological disasters and the impacts of extreme weather such as heavy to very heavy rain on a local scale, as well as strong winds, floods, landslides, fallen trees, and other damage.
Previously, the BMKG predicted that the high rainfall in West Java would increase in the second ten-day period, from November 11 to 20, 2025. According to the BMKG West Java Climatology Station, about 65 percent or the majority of the area has the potential for high rainfall with an intensity of 150 to 300 millimeters per ten days.
The areas expected to have high rainfall in West Java include parts of Bogor Regency, Depok City, parts of Sukabumi, Cianjur, Purwakarta, southern Subang. Then, the Greater Bandung area covering the city and regency of Bandung, Cimahi City, and West Bandung Regency, as well as southern Sumedang, Majalengka, and southern Kuningan, parts of Garut, Tasikmalaya, Ciamis, Banjar, and parts of Pangandaran.
Meanwhile, the potential for very high rainfall of more than 300 millimeters per ten days will affect 5 percent of the area in West Java, including parts of Bogor Regency, Bogor City, Sukabumi, parts of Cianjur, and southern Garut, Tasikmalaya, and Pangandaran.
Areas experiencing moderate rainfall of 50 to 150 millimeters per ten days cover 27 percent and include parts of Bekasi, Karawang, Subang, Indramayu, Cirebon, as well as Kuningan and Majalengka. Meanwhile, 3 percent of areas experiencing low rainfall are in the northern part extending from Bekasi, Karawang, Subang, Indramayu to Cirebon.
Compared to the rainfall conditions in the first ten days of November in West Java, as analyzed by the BMKG, the potential for high rainfall has doubled in the second ten-day period. In the period of November 1 to 10, 2025, high rainfall covered 30 percent of West Java, while the majority, or 47 percent, experienced moderate rainfall.
Editor's Choice: BMKG Forecasts Rain in Jakarta and Surrounding Areas from Afternoon Until Evening
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