Old Soviet Spacecraft Kosmos 482 Could Fall in Four Indonesian Areas Today, Says BRIN

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TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - A senior researcher at Indonesia's National Innovation Research Agency's (BRIN) Space Research Center, Thomas Djamaluddin, has reported that the spacecraft Kosmos 482 is expected to fall to Earth on Saturday afternoon, May 10, 2025. The potential impact areas include Central Asia, Southeast Asia, Australia, South America, and Europe.

"The potential areas of impact in Indonesia are North Kalimantan, East Kalimantan, South Sulawesi, and East Nusa Tenggara," he informed Tempo on Saturday, May 10, 2025.

According to Thomas, the Kosmos 482 object is projected to pass through Indonesian airspace around 1:00 PM WITA (Central Indonesian Time). Indonesia's vulnerability stems from the malfunctioning orbit of the former Soviet spacecraft, which has transformed into space debris and is traversing the area between 52 degrees North Latitude and 52 degrees South Latitude.

Thomas explained that the precise time and location of the descent cannot be definitively determined due to atmospheric uncertainties. However, he noted that it is highly probable the object will fall into the ocean, a forest, or a desert. "Although, the possibility of it landing in populated areas cannot be entirely dismissed," Thomas cautioned.

According to BRIN's website, Kosmos 482 was launched in 1972 for a mission to land on Venus. This mission failed due to a rocket malfunction during the final launch stage. Consequently, for the past 53 years, the landing module has remained as space debris in Earth's orbit.

The object's altitude has been steadily decreasing from an initial 10,000 kilometers and is estimated to fall within the next few minutes, when its altitude reaches approximately 120 kilometers today, May 10, 2025. The landing module, equipped with a robust titanium heat shield, is predicted to reach the Earth's surface intact. Weighing 0.5 tons and with a spherical diameter of about one meter, it will descend rapidly, appearing as a fireball.

BRIN stated that its Space Research Center continues to intensively monitor the object's orbital trajectory as it approaches the critical altitude of 120 kilometers. This continuous monitoring aims to identify the most likely impact zones by observing the final stages of its orbital path. "The public should remain calm but cautious," advised Thomas.

He further noted that no nation possesses the capability to precisely predict the uncontrolled descent of space debris such as Kosmos 482.

Editor's Choice: Soviet-Era Spacecraft Kosmos 482 Could Crash in Indonesian Territory, BRIN Says

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