TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - The Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) is warning the public about an increased potential for extreme weather over the next few days. Significant rainfall is expected in various regions of Indonesia, and citizens are advised to remain vigilant.
According to BMKG's Meteorology Deputy Guswanto, extremely heavy rainfall has already been recorded in several provinces. Bengkulu saw 160.8 millimeters of rain on August 1, Maluku had 203.5 millimeters on August 3, West Sumatra received 176.5 millimeters on August 8, and West Java recorded 254.7 millimeters on August 9.
"Extreme rain has also occurred in West Kalimantan, Central Papua, Jakarta, Banten, Jambi, the Riau Islands, Southwest Papua, and Southeast Sulawesi," Guswanto said in a statement on Monday, August 11, 2025.
Causes of Extreme Weather
Guswanto explained that the increase in rainfall is attributed to several atmospheric phenomena, including the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), atmospheric waves, the indirect influence of cyclone seeds 90S and 96W, and cyclonic circulation. There is also a slowdown and convergence of winds over Indonesia.
BMKG's Public Meteorology Director, Andri Ramdhani, added that the Indian Ocean Dipole Mode is also a factor, bringing air masses from the Indian Ocean to Indonesia. These atmospheric dynamics are creating massive rain clouds that could trigger heavy rain, thunderstorms, and strong winds from August 11 to 13, 2025.
Forecast
This extreme weather is expected to affect most of Sumatra, Java, Kalimantan, Sulawesi, Maluku, and Papua.
From August 14 to 16, the rain intensity is expected to decrease, although heavy rainfall may continue in Bengkulu, East Kalimantan, and the Papua Highlands. The BMKG also noted the potential for strong winds that could cause high waves in the waters around Aceh, Banten, West Java, Bali, Maluku, West and East Nusa Tenggara (NTB and NTT), South Sulawesi, and South Papua.
Potential Disruptions to Agriculture and Tourism
Andri highlighted that the increased rainfall may disrupt agricultural activities, specifically planting and harvesting, in parts of West Java, Central Java, and South Sumatra.
Farmers are advised to avoid planting in low-lying, flood-prone areas and to reinforce their irrigation and drainage channels. Conversely, he noted that parts of NTB and NTT are expected to be drier, making conditions suitable for drying harvested crops.
The rise in rainfall is also projected to impact tourism, particularly in mountainous and waterfall destinations. Visitors are urged to be cautious of heavy rain and thick fog.
Ramdhani also advised people traveling to the southern beaches of Java and Bali to be alert for high waves and strong winds, recommending that sea activities, such as snorkeling and surfing, should be postponed.
Furthermore, early warnings have been issued for potential turbulence and flight disruptions due to the formation of cumulonimbus and other convective clouds. These conditions are most likely to affect Sumatra, Banten, West Java, the Karimata Strait, the Natuna Sea, Kalimantan, the Makassar Strait, and Papua. Airlines are advised to pay close attention to flight information such as SIGMET and NOTAM.
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