Celios: Indonesia's Wildfire Losses Could Reach Rp123.1 Trillion

September 2, 2026 | 06:06 pm

TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - Forest and land fires are often measured by the area they destroy or the number of hotspots detected. But their impact can extend much further, affecting businesses, livelihoods and public health.

So, how much has Indonesia lost to forest and land fires this year?

A recent estimate by the Center of Economic and Law Studies (Celios) puts the potential losses from January to August 2026 at between Rp39.29 trillion and Rp123.1 trillion (US$2.3 billion-US$7.3 billion).

The higher estimate is equivalent to 49.1 percent of Central Kalimantan’s projected regional gross domestic product (GDP) for 2026. It also excludes losses from fires that could continue through the end of the year, meaning the eventual economic burden could be even greater.

Celios Economic Director Nailul Huda said the estimate should be viewed as a measure of the broader costs caused by forest and land fires.

“The potential real losses could be much greater than what we have presented,” Huda said.

How Much Has the Economy Lost?

Celios estimated that losses from physical assets and disrupted economic activity alone reached Rp29.54 trillion, or around 0.23 percent of Indonesia’s national GDP.

The calculation goes beyond the direct destruction of forests, timber and land. It also accounts for disruptions to economic sectors including trade, agriculture, accommodation, and food and beverage businesses.

Celios based its estimate on an approach developed by Kiely et al. in a 2021 study published in Nature Communications, combined with historical World Bank data from the major forest and land fire crises of 2015 and 2019.

Which Provinces Have Lost the Most?

West Kalimantan recorded the largest estimated nominal economic loss at Rp5.7 trillion, followed by West Papua at Rp4.3 trillion and East Nusa Tenggara at Rp2.8 trillion.

The figures also point to a wider geographical impact. According to Huda, forest and land fires are no longer concentrated in Kalimantan and Sumatra, but are increasingly affecting parts of eastern Indonesia.

How Much Do Health Costs Add?

The economic burden becomes much larger when the health impact of smoke exposure is included.

Celios calculated two scenarios. In the first, covering people diagnosed with acute respiratory infections (ARI), around 1.78 million people were affected, with estimated healthcare costs of Rp9.75 trillion.

Direct medical expenses accounted for Rp7.13 trillion, while indirect costs reached Rp2.63 trillion.

A broader scenario includes people who experienced symptoms but did not seek treatment because of financial or geographical barriers. Under this scenario, an estimated 17.4 million people were affected, pushing healthcare costs to Rp93.56 trillion.

That figure is equivalent to 67.6 percent of the 2026 state budget allocation for the health function.

“Total healthcare costs reached Rp93.56 trillion, equivalent to 67.6 percent of the total health-function budget in the 2026 state budget,” Huda said.

Where Are Health Costs Highest?

West Nusa Tenggara recorded the highest estimated health-related costs at Rp19.01 trillion, followed by East Java at Rp13.65 trillion and Riau at Rp10.31 trillion.

The provinces with the highest health costs are not necessarily those with the largest burned areas. Population density is also a major factor because more people can be exposed to smoke and its health effects.

Meanwhile, the National Disaster Mitigation Agency (BNPB) reported that air quality in South Kalimantan and West Kalimantan had reached moderate to hazardous levels. In South Kalimantan, 13 hotspots were detected, while smoke reduced visibility to less than three kilometers in some areas.

The figures suggest that the cost of Indonesia’s forest and land fires extends well beyond burned forests and land. As fires continue, economic disruption and health-related expenses could push the final bill even higher.

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