TEMPO.CO, Jakarta – The rupiah could weaken to Rp17,400 per US dollar this year if it slides to Rp17,000 per dollar in March, according to Ibrahim Assuaibi, Director of PT Traze Andalan Futures.
Ibrahim said the currency’s depreciation has been driven partly by escalating geopolitical tensions following the US-Israeli attack that killed Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei.
“Threats to the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial route for crude oil exports from major producers such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq and the United Arab Emirates, have added a significant geopolitical risk premium to oil prices,” Ibrahim said in a statement on Wednesday, March 4, 2026.
Domestically, pressure on the rupiah has also come after Fitch Ratings revised Indonesia’s sovereign outlook from stable to negative, while maintaining its BBB rating.
On Wednesday morning, the rupiah fell to Rp16,917 per US dollar. Bank Indonesia Senior Deputy Governor Destry Damayanti said the central bank would remain active in the market to stabilize the currency amid escalating Middle East tensions.
“Firm and consistent intervention will continue through Non-Deliverable Forward (NDF) transactions in the offshore market, spot market operations, and Domestic Non-Deliverable Forward (DNDF) transactions, accompanied by purchases of government bonds in the secondary market,” Destry said in an official statement on March 4.
Bank Indonesia noted that the rupiah has weakened 0.51 percent month-to-date. Destry said the depreciation remains broadly in line with regional currencies.
She added that Indonesia’s foreign exchange reserves stood at US$154.6 billion at the end of January 2026, while foreign capital inflows into domestic financial markets reached Rp25.7 trillion so far this year.
Read: Bank Indonesia Intervenes After Rupiah Weakens
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