TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - March 2026 is predicted to be the most ideal period to witness the aurora or northern lights in nearly a decade. The combination of the equinox effect and the Sun's continued strong activity is expected to increase the likelihood of this phenomenon occurring. However, predicting its exact location and time remains difficult.
Astronomically, on March 20 at 10:46 a.m. EDT (14:46 UTC or 21:46 UTC+7), the Sun will cross the sky's equator. This event marks the spring equinox in the Northern Hemisphere and the autumn equinox in the Southern Hemisphere. At this moment, the Earth's axis is sideways to the Sun.
Although after this, nights in the Northern Hemisphere will become shorter towards the summer solstice in June, the period of several weeks before and after the equinox is known to increase the chances of the aurora appearing.
However, an early March report from Live Science says that the exact locations and times of the aurora's appearance are still uncertain.
Scientists Christopher Russell and Robert McPherron first described the phenomenon known as the "equinox effect" in a 1973 scientific paper. They stated that the aurora more often occurs in March and September because the solar wind's magnetic field, pointing south, can neutralize Earth's magnetic field, pointing north. This condition paves the way for charged particles to flow in and collide with oxygen and nitrogen atoms in the upper atmosphere, thus producing the auroral lights.
This year's March equinox occurs during the maximum solar period-peak of the 11-year activity cycle, beginning to wane. Agencies such as NASA, NOAA, and the International Panel on Solar Cycle Prediction previously reported that the sun may reach its peak activity in October 2024, though official confirmation may not come for months or years.
The number of sunspots, which are an indicator of the sun's magnetic strength, is currently trending downward. With the decrease in sunspots, the potential for solar flares and coronal mass ejections, charged particle clouds that can trigger auroras when reaching the Earth, is also expected to decrease.
According to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center, Solar Cycle 26 is projected to begin between January 2029 and December 2032, with activity levels likely to remain low in its early phase.
Although current conditions are expected to produce the best auroras until the mid-2030s, their appearance still depends greatly on the unpredictable activity of the sun. For example, in early February, the most active sunspot in the current cycle appeared and briefly triggered auroras at lower latitudes than usual. However, this sunspot has disappeared, and there is no certainty whether a strong replacement will emerge before the equinox.
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