Iceland Holds Knife-Edge Referendum on EU Membership Talks

August 29, 2026 | 06:04 pm

TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - Iceland holds a national referendum on Saturday on whether to restart negotiations to join the European Union.

The Nordic nation has spent the better part of two decades wrestling with the question of becoming the bloc’s 28th member.

Iceland's left-leaning government, elected in 2024, originally vowed to hold a vote next year but brought it forward because of rising geopolitical tension over Russia's war in Ukraine and Greenland.

What do we know about Iceland's referendum?

As they head to one of hundreds of polling stations, voters will be asked a simple yes/no question:

Should Iceland resume accession negotiations with the European Union?

The question relates to a previous attempt by the Icelandic government to join the EU in 2009, at the height of the global financial crisis that devastated the local economy. The accession plan was later shelved.

Saturday's vote is described as too close to call, with a Gallup poll on Friday suggesting a narrow majority of Icelanders oppose reopening talks. Other recent polls suggest a narrow lead for the yes vote.

Although Iceland has never been an EU member, it is already closely integrated with the bloc.

It is a member of both the European Economic Area (EEA) — which gives access to the EU's frictionless single market — and the Schengen Area free-travel zone.

Of Iceland's roughly 400,000 population, around 265,000 are eligible to vote.

What are the deciding factors among voters?

Voters have grown increasingly concerned about geopolitics, including the threat from Russia and US President Donald Trump's threats to seize nearby Greenland from Denmark.

Icelanders, who gained independence from Denmark in 1944, have been asking whether they could be next.

"We can't really trust the US anymore," said Hildur Knutsdottir, a horror fiction writer who plans to vote in favor of EU membership.

Arctic nations sit at the center of a growing contest for the polar north, as the United States, Russia and China jostle for influence over sea routes, natural resources and security.

The left-leaning Icelandic coalition believes EU membership could help counter Trump's ambitions in the North Atlantic.

"The international order that underpinned our security and prosperity for decades is under serious pressure," Foreign Minister Thorgerdur Gunnarsdottir told Reuters last week.

"In times like these, small nations need to think carefully about where they stand and who stands with them," she added.

Fishing, interest rates and national identity

The last attempt to join the EU was shelved in 2015 largely over concerns about joining the bloc's common fisheries policy.

Icelanders have been living off hefty cod and haddock catches for centuries and are loath to open the chilled Arctic waters to Spanish, Dutch and other EU trawlers, which is a requirement from Brussels.

The government has said it could try to negotiate a full opt-out from the policy.

Some economists think Icelanders, who have struggled under high inflation and interest rates, could benefit financially from EU membership and possibly the adoption of the euro.

National identity is another driver of voting, with opponents of EU membership noting how Iceland enjoys all the benefits of European integration without being a full member.

"For a country like ours with our small economy, it's very important to maintain our sovereignty and not to transfer more power than we would have to do to the EU," former Prime Minister Katrin Jakobsdottir said at an event in Reykjavik ‌on Thursday.

What happens if Iceland votes to restart EU talks?

A yes vote would trigger a negotiating process with the EU's executive branch, the European Commission.

This would involve discussions on 35 areas, from the economy to human rights.

A foreign ministry memo estimates accession talks could start by the end of the year and take 18 to 24 months.

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